Here are four predictions, trends and developments that I believe will occur in 2012 and will have important implications for messaging, collaboration and related decision makers:
2012 will be the year of social media management
Imagine letting your corporate email system be whatever your employees choose—Hotmail, Yahoo! Mail, Gmail, whatever. Then let them say anything they want without any policy management, supervision or consequences. Moreover, don’t preserve any email content, even if it contains actionable or important business records that you really should keep for legal or regulatory reasons. Now, substitute “social media” for “email”, and that’s pretty much the situation you have in most organizations today.
Some industries and organizations get the important of managing social media. For example, financial services firms—as a result of rulings by FINRA, IIROC, the FSA, etc.—understand that social media content must be managed. Important content must be archived, tweets and posts need to be monitored, and policies need to be established and enforced. The NFL gets it and has established specific guidelines for what players and coaches can post to social media before and after a game. However, the vast majority of organizations don’t get it—they let employees say anything they want on Twitter, Facebook or other social media sites without establishing any policies or guidelines whatsoever. If you’re unsure of the risk, search for “I lied to my client” or “my boss is stupid” on Twitter and see what comes up.
I believe that will change dramatically in 2012 as decision makers become more aware of their risk. Unfortunately, I think much of that awareness will be of the two-by-four-upside-the-head variety as organizations are sued for sexual harassment or other actionable posts on social media. Wise decision makers will get out ahead of the problem and (a.) establish acceptable use policies for social media and (b.) deploy technology that will manage and archive this content according to those policies.
RIM and Novell GroupWise will turn around
I realize that I’m in a pretty small minority here, but I believe that RIM and Novell will have a better 2012 than 2011. RIM, because it will introduce some interesting new phones this year and because its robust security model still has lots of credibility in the IT space; Novell, because I think Attachmate will take the steps necessary to prevent the continued slide of the GroupWise brand and because GroupWise is still a pretty solid messaging platform. While I don’t expect a massive turnaround in either brand, things will improve.
Apple will get serious about the enterprise
I really like Apple products, but the company has never taken the enterprise market seriously enough in my opinion. Assuming that will change in 2012, I’m going to go way out on a limb here (hoping everyone who reads this forgets it if it doesn’t happen), but I think Apple will buy Parallels Holdings, the owner of the very popular Parallels virtualization platform as a means of moving the Mac into the enterprise as a robust Windows platform for enterprise applications. That would enable decision makers to deploy Macs with their somewhat lower cost of ownership while not having to rewrite any of their enterprise apps in order to do so. And, no, I’m not smoking anything!
Spam will make a comeback—with a vengeance
Spam volumes dropped dramatically in 2011 compared to 2010 because of the takedown of some key botnets and other developments. For example, Symantec.cloud reported that from spam’s high of 92.3% of all email traversing the Internet in August 2010, spam fell to 72.8% in April 2011—and it stayed relatively low through the rest of the year.
That said, I believe that spam will come back in a serious way in 2012 for two reasons:
- Traditional spam is still very effective and it’s incredibly inexpensive to produce, yielding extremely high ROIs even with very low clickthrough rates. Products that produce such incredible returns simply won’t go away.
- More insidiously, spam—in the form of phishing and similar types of attacks—is an effective way to deliver malware into organizations. Attacks that occurred at Oak Ridge National Laboratory and the International Monetary Fund are good examples of how good employee training or robust defenses can still fall prey to targeted attacks. Bad guys love malware and are very motivated to deliver it in whatever way they can.
I’d appreciate your feedback on these predictions.