Is Google Docs a failure?

By Michael Osterman
in

While Osterman Research competes with Forrester (much like a BB gun competes with a Howitzer), I have great respect for the company and its analysts.  However, I respectfully disagree with a Forrester blog post published today that “Google Docs remains a failure – so far anyway”.  The gist of the article is that because only 4% of US consumers who are online indicate that they regularly use Google Docs, and because Microsoft Office completely dominates the application space, Docs is, as yet, a failure in the consumer space.

Clearly no disagreement with the assertion that Microsoft dominates the application suite market, but here’s why I disagree with the basic focus of the post:

  • The consumer space is really not the bellwether for success in the application suite market.  The majority of people who use Microsoft Office legally (the only market that really counts) do so at work – because of Microsoft’s very useful policy of allowing the primary user of Office to also install the software on his or her laptop for their exclusive use, many “consumers” are actually work users who use the suite at home.  Of course, there are many who illegally copy Office and use it at home, but they’re clearly not a market for purchasing software that they can easily steal anyway.
  • An IDC report published in September 2009 found that roughly 20% of businesses currently use Google Docs, a significant increase from just 5% in 2007.
  • Google Docs is an integral component of Google Apps that has, conservatively, nearly two million users, including some large organizations like Konica Minolta, Genentech, the City of Los Angeles, the government of Washington DC, Avago Technologies, Yale University and Motorola.

Just like it would be inaccurate to characterize Apple as a failure because the Mac has very little market share in the business space, I don’t believe it’s fair to characterize Google Docs as a “failure” given that it has only 4% of the consumer market.  Plus, there are a variety of interesting and useful features available in Google Docs – like storage for 250-megabyte files and the ability to print directly to HP printers – that are quite innovative and useful.

Will Office 2010 be a success in both the packaged software market and in the cloud space?  I believe it definitely will be.  Will Google Docs be a success in the cloud space, as well? Ditto.

Published June 14, 2010