Michael Osterman

BlackBerry used to be the dominant mobile messaging platform in the enterprise, but (by their own admission) they become arrogant as the market leader in the absence of serious competition.  Then along came the iPhone and Android on a variety of innovative devices – and several hundred thousand cool applications for both platforms.  Then came IT’s decision to more or less capitulate and let consumers dictate the mobile environment in their organizations.  The result was that the BlackBerry became relegated to a distant third place and it lost mindshare, no better indication of which was its stock price that fell roughly 95% in a remarkably short time.  The net result was that not only would fewer users opt for BlackBerry devices, but IT would also reduce support for BlackBerry Enterprise Server (BES) – our own research shows that anticipated support for BES will be lower by early 2014 than it is today.

Clearly, RIM-then/BlackBerry-now messed things up quite seriously and squandered its enviable position as leader of a large and rapidly growing market.  Arguably, they did so at about the worst possible time – just as mobile was becoming the dominant computing platform for millions of users.  Compounding the problem, the company recognized their shortcomings, but then was late in delivering their next-generation handset and its enterprise platform.

However, BlackBerry seems to have righted what some might consider to be a sinking ship:

• They introduced an advanced, elegantly designed, touch-only device, the Z10.
• They announced a more traditionally designed, but equally advanced device, the Q10 that has a physical keyboard.
• They introduced BlackBerry Enterprise Service 10 that supports not only BlackBerry devices, but also Android and iOS.
• The company also just announced a lower cost device, the Q5, aimed at increasing the company’s penetration in emerging markets.
• BlackBerry Balance provides one of the better platforms for segregating and managing company-owned and personal data on employee-owned devices.
• The company will be making some very interesting announcements over the next several months that currently are under NDA.
• The leadership team was replaced last year and seems to have given the company some traction once again.

Has BlackBerry turned the corner?  I’m convinced the answer is yes, but the company still has a significant amount of work ahead of it convincing others of that.  As noted above, our research shows that support for BES is still declining, at least in terms of the number of companies that plan to support it by next year.  I think this reflects an outdated perception by many IT decision makers that BlackBerry is still on the decline from a feature and function standpoint – in essence, many decision makers are basing their decisions on old information that BlackBerry will need to continue working hard to wean out of the IT mindset.

Similarly, many users don’t think that BlackBerry devices are nearly as cool as the iPhone 5 or many Android-based devices like the Nexus 4 or Galaxy S4.  Again, most of these people have probably not played with the Z10 and so think of “the BlackBerry” as the somewhat stodgy workhorse that it used to be – another hurdle that BlackBerry will have to overcome.  Complicating the problem is that most don’t consider BlackBerry a leader in the mobile space – a report we will publish within the next two weeks discusses the results of an in-depth survey we conducted on the mobile market in North America.  That survey shows that while 46% of IT decision makers and influencers believe that Apple is “definitely a leader” in the mobile messaging space, only 17% think this about BlackBerry; even Microsoft received a higher rating.

BlackBerry will have to continue working hard to regain its lost market share in the mid-market and enterprise space in North America, despite the fact that it currently dominates some markets, such as Latin America and South Africa.  However, I believe the company will be able to take back much of their share because they have several compelling arguments that should resonate nicely with IT decision makers: a solid, multi-platform mobile management system; new handsets that will appeal to many users; robust technology for addressing the BYOD issue; the company’s venerable security model that its competitors cannot match; and its ability to offer all of these capabilities from a single vendor.  The company’s serious missteps of the past – and their new management’s response to them – may end up being the best thing that could have happened to the company.